云计算环境下的图书馆数字资源共建共享研究

概述云计算产生的契机、概念及其发展现状。分析影响当前我国图书馆数字资源共建共享工作的主要障碍,并基于云计算技术,探讨了解除图书馆数字资源共建共享障碍的对策。     

浅谈云计算虚拟化实验室

随着软件业的迅猛发展,软件产品的质量控制与质量管理正逐渐成为企业生存与发展的核心。软件测试实验室是以学院信息化发展和软件综合能力建设为目标,以IT信息化服务,实训实验服务,项目实施,产品孵化,特别是IT技术相关用户为服务对象,通过有效整合学校院系、科研院所、科技中介服务机构以及企业和用人单位等优势资源,面向业界技术共性需求提供公共服务的国际化创新实验室。软件测试实验室应具有国际化的专业化水准,能够提供区域性IT综合服务。     

A review of Delphi forecasting research in tourism

The Delphi technique is the most popular judgemental forecasting method in tourism studies, but theoretical and empirical developments in this area (especially for forecasting purposes) have been slow. This paper analyses published research on Delphi forecasting in tourism and hospitality, explores how the Delphi forecasting method has progressed over the past four decades in terms of topical areas, empirical applications, and issues of reliability and validity, and is thus expected to advance understanding of the Delphi technique, providing topical and methodological recommendations for researchers and industry practitioners for producing accurate forecasts. The literature concerning the qualitative and quantitative applications of Delphi forecasting in tourism is mainly divided into three research themes: event forecasting, forecasting tourism demand, and forecasting future trends/market conditions (the most popular application). Issues of accuracy, reliability, and validity, as well as a group of Delphi-specific characteristics, such as panel size, panel selection, consensus measures, and analysis of results, are summarized and discussed. This study also examines the accuracy of Delphi forecasts as well as exploring the role of the Delphi approach in integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasts.     

Investment evaluation of cloud computing in the European business sector

The importance of cloud computing is acknowledged both at national and entrepreneurial level. Its potential in business has been already described in many studies (Dillon et al., 2010; Bayrak et al., 2011; Nuseibeh, 2011; Repschlaeger et al., 2013). However, many European countries do not exploit it much in spite of many positive responses made by respected consulting companies. The reasons for this are a very low level of changes in companies, ignorance of opportunities of the given technology and, consequently, an inability to count the return of investment. Therefore, the aim of this article is to introduce a tool for the investment evaluation of cloud computing, which corresponds to the needs of the European business environment and to the properties of this technology. Furthermore, the cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) method is explored. This method is adjusted for cloud computing on the basis of companies’ requirements, which were collected from quantitative and qualitative surveys and from the interviews with experts in cloud computing from academic and business environments. In addition, individual stages of the CBA method used in cloud computing are described.     

汇市干预的理论与实证分析——来自日本的经验

本文以颇具代表性的日本货币当局外汇干预的模式为参照系,对当今世界资金规模最大、金融领域最前沿的外汇市场从理论和实践的角度进行论证,旨在为未来我国人民币国际化后所必将产生的外汇干预等相关问题提供具有实际意义的建议与理念。     

A service governance mechanism based on process mining for cloud-based applications

ABSTRACT

With the widely use of cloud computing in enterprise information systems, service governance becomes critical for an enterprise to adapt to a changing business environment. In order to provide a dynamic strategy for continuous service governance, in this paper a comprehensive service analysis solution is proposed to address both design time and run-time requirements for cloud applications. First, a process-centric Semantic Scene Model is composed to combines static business requirements with dynamic execution information. Then service analysis is conducted referring both to the business process mining results from event logs and the Semantic Scene Model given by business model designers. Service governance strategies are generated from the service analysis results and are performed to qualitatively classify the Quality of Service (QoS) of the services. Finally the approach is verified with a transportation logistics service application in a cloud platform. The result shows that our method can get continuous service governance through combining business processes with run-time service analysis.     

Insurance premiums under demand constraints

Abstract

An alternative approach to the variance principle of premium determination is explored. The approach rationalises the principle in terms of an economic theory and formalises the notion that loadings in addition to the ‘fair’ premium are related to competition and expenses.     

THE IMPACT OF POINT‐OF‐SALE DATA INACCURACY AND INVENTORY RECORD DATA ERRORS

The presence or absence of error in point‐of‐sale (POS) data and inventory system records directly affects retailer performance. This study identifies various error sources in retail supply chains and studies the influence of inventory and POS (demand) errors in a simulated retail outlet according to fill rate and average inventory. Other things being equal, we find that inventory record error reduces fill rate more than demand error. This study adds further evidence to other studies that suggest the costs caused by errors in POS systems may be overstated.     

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework

This article uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting U.S. home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, price of homes, mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict U.S. home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.